Workforce scenario planning means building more than one staffing plan from the same order book, so the plant has an answer ready whichever way demand moves. This article shows how to build a best, base and worst case, set a trigger for each and agree the response before the swing arrives.
It is written for operations and HR managers whose orders arrive in lumps. The article on warehouse labour planning builds the base-case headcount from volume, and this one starts from that base case. For the whole method and its review rhythm, see the guide to workforce planning for manufacturers and warehouses.
Why workforce scenario planning beats one forecast when demand is lumpy
A single forecast gives a single headcount, and demand that arrives in lumps will not match it for long. An order lands early, a customer defers a run or a new contract starts, and a roster built on one number is either short or carrying idle hours. Scenario planning replaces that one number with three, each with a point at which you act.
Two existing posts help you reach the number. The post on forecasting holiday demand shows how a food producer reads past data and its production schedule, and the post on seasonal labour forecasting builds a seasonal forecast step by step. This article starts after the forecast, with what to do when orders move away from it. The post on changes in blue collar worker availability deals with supply, and this article stays with demand.
The workforce planning guidance on business.gov.au describes a plan as a working tool, not a static document, and lists responding quickly to change as a reason to keep it under review. Scenarios build that response into a staffing plan before it is needed.
Build three scenarios from the same order book
Start with one order book: confirmed orders, the repeat business you expect and any known event, such as a contract start. Every scenario uses the same book. What changes is how much of it arrives, and when. The best case is the upside and the worst case is the downside; the sections below use upside and downside.
Base case
The base case is the staffing plan for the order book arriving as you expect. It is the headcount from your volume-to-hours calculation, with its mix of permanent, casual and labour hire people. Write it down as weekly labour hours, because hours are the unit you will compare against later.
Upside case
The upside case is the plan for orders running ahead of the base case. A new contract, a customer bringing a run forward or an early start to a peak can all push demand there. Define it by the extra weekly hours it needs, so the plant has a figure to staff.
Downside case
The downside case is the plan for orders running behind the base case. A deferred run, a lost customer or a long machine outage can cause it. Define it by the weekly hours that drop out, then write down which steps you would take first and which you would leave until last.
Set trigger points that tell you when to act
A trigger point is a number that, once reached, starts a response agreed in advance. In a staffing plan it works best as a comparison with the base case. Two comparisons are enough to start, and you choose the thresholds:
- Orders booked against plan. Orders booked for the next few weeks, compared with the base case for the same weeks.
- Weekly hours against plan. Labour hours rostered or worked, compared with the base case hours.
Add a duration, so one odd week does not fire a trigger, and name the person who can call it. An illustration, with every figure a placeholder for your own:
- Base case. 1,600 labour hours a week.
- Upside trigger. Booked hours 10 per cent above plan, which is 1,760 hours, for two weeks running.
- Downside trigger. Booked hours 10 per cent below plan, which is 1,440 hours, for two weeks running.
The gap in each case is 160 hours a week, the work of four people on 40-hour weeks before leave and ramp-up. Set your own percentage and duration from the swings your plant has seen. For the standing measures a site tracks all year, and their formulas, see the article on workforce KPIs for manufacturing site managers.
Pre-agree the response for each scenario
Write the response beside each trigger before it fires. The ladder below runs from the step that is easiest to reverse to the hardest. The first four steps add capacity, and hours reduction sits at the far end of the downside case. Give each step an owner and a limit.
- Overtime ceiling. The quickest step to start and stop. Set a cap per person per week within the limits of your award or agreement, and a limit on how many weeks the cap stays in use.
- Flexible hours. Move casual and part-time hours up or down, and shift start times to match when the work arrives.
- Labour hire. Add people for a block of shifts without a permanent commitment. Agree in advance which roles you would book, what induction each needs and who places the order. The post on fast labour hire explains how lead times vary by role and what a shift brief should hold.
- Hiring. When the upside lasts long enough that the work is no longer temporary, permanent hires follow. Chandler Recruitment handles permanent roles, including manufacturing recruitment.
- Hours reduction. For the downside only. Notice and stand-down rules apply, so check the Fair Work Ombudsman or take advice before you change anyone's hours.
In the downside case, take capacity out in the same order, easiest to reverse first: stop overtime, trim flexible hours, release labour hire bookings under the terms of your supplier agreement and pause hiring.
Put the three cases, their triggers and their responses on one page. For each scenario, write the trigger, the first response, its limit and its owner. That page is your contingency staffing plan.
Chandler Personnel is available 24 hours a day because blue collar staffing changes hour to hour, and its Chandler Services division provides labour hire in Melbourne. It also runs site inductions on behalf of clients. Check any provider on the official licence register before you book.
Test the plan against a swing you have already lived through
Before you rely on the thresholds, replay a swing your plant has already had: an order that arrived early, a customer who deferred, a peak that started late. Pull the weekly orders and hours from that period and ask: which week would the trigger have fired, what would the ladder have done that week and the next, and would the response have arrived in time to matter?
If the trigger would have fired after the damage was done, lower the threshold or shorten the duration. If it would have fired on weeks that turned out to be noise, raise the threshold or lengthen the duration. Replay a second swing before you settle the numbers.
Related Resources
- business.gov.au workforce planning guide
- Changes in blue collar worker availability
- Forecasting holiday demand
- Seasonal labour forecasting
- How lead times vary by role
- Labour hire in Melbourne
- Manufacturing recruitment
Frequently Asked Questions
What is scenario planning for staffing?
Scenario planning for staffing means preparing more than one staffing plan from the same order book, usually a base case, an upside and a downside. Each plan has a trigger, a number you choose, and a response agreed in advance, so the plant acts on the number when demand moves.
How many scenarios should a manufacturer plan for?
Three is a workable number: a base case, an upside and a downside. Each extra scenario adds another trigger and another response to keep current, so add a fourth only for a known event, such as the start of a large contract, that none of the three covers.
What is a trigger point in a staffing plan?
A trigger point is a number that starts a pre-agreed staffing response once it is reached. Common examples are orders booked or weekly labour hours compared with the base case plan. You choose the threshold and add a duration, such as two weeks running, so a single odd week does not set it off.
How do I scale labour up quickly without a long hiring process?
Agree the steps before you need them. Set an overtime ceiling, know which casual and part-time hours can move, and prepare the shift brief and induction for each role you would book through labour hire. Permanent hiring takes longer, so keep it for an upside that lasts.
What should a downside plan cover before I cut hours?
Work down the response ladder first: stop overtime, trim flexible hours, release labour hire and pause hiring. If a job will go rather than just lose hours, redundancy pay may be owed after one year of continuous service where the employer has at least 15 employees, and the entitlement comes from the National Employment Standards, an award or an enterprise agreement. Notice is still required. Awards and small businesses differ, so take advice.
Decide the response before the swing
Workforce scenario planning gives each swing a trigger number, an owner and a first response before it arrives. Build the base case from your order book, add an upside and a downside, and replay one past swing to check the thresholds. When you are ready to put a flexible labour plan behind your triggers, you can request staff from Chandler Personnel.
